For years, cars were low-tech
machines that belched smoke, and could be fixed by someone with a third-grade
education and a monkey wrench. No longer. Today's automobiles are masterpieces
of integrated technology,
near-perfect marriages of fiberglass and microchips that offer more comfort
and cutting-edge features than a
space shuttle. But the question on many drivers' minds these days is whether
the current crop of cars is
smart in the right way.
Here's the problem:
Brilliant engineers in Detroit, Toyota City, and Stuttgart have spent millions
of man hours coming up with better ways to
deploy a side air bag or hold a coffee cup. But what is becoming increasingly
apparent is that they should also have been
spending more time and money devising technology to improve fuel-efficiency
in a car people actually want to buy.
At some point over the past few
decades the auto industry found itself focusing more on the superficial aspects
of cars.
True, safety and reliability ratings have soared across the board for nearly
every manufacturer, yet these were refinements,
not radical adjustments. Auto designers have never lacked for bold ideas,
but it has been the fault of management for failing
to push harder in new directions and take risks. This short-term focus is
responsible for landing automakers, especially the
Detroit 3, in their current mess.
How big of a mess? In June, auto
sales fell 18% across the board, with only a few smaller or more fuel-efficient
cars such
as Honda's Fit and Accord showing a modest gain. Sales of trucks,
SUVs, and luxury cars were all down
—28.8%, 37.7%, and 21.6%, respectively—from the same month in 2007.
Since the early days of the automobile,
visionaries and crackpots alike have experimented with different ways to
make a car go.
Yet since the Stanley Steamer, there has been little serious competition
to the internal combustion engine.
That's because for the first 70 years or so of the automobile's existence,
gasoline was so cheap no alternative was needed.
But with the energy crisis of the 1970s, the long-term viability of gas-powered
cars was first seriously called into question.
However, instead of taking the hint and throwing themselves into developing
serious alternative engine technology, for the
most part the automakers did nothing.
Fortunately, that is finally
changing. Over the past few years, as the price of oil has climbed and car
sales have suffered,
automakers have scrambled to offer more fuel-efficient vehicles. Some makers,
such as Toyota and Honda, were already
bringing hybrid cars to market, including Toyota's Prius, and most had some
form of alternative-fuel skunkworks in their budget.
But for the most part they were caught flat-footed by the sudden surge in
demand for fuel-economic cars.
Take BMW and Mercedes-Benz,
for example. Both companies are renowned for the performance and elegance
of their cars,
but they had been so successful making diesels for the European market that
they never seriously explored hybrid or
electric technologies. Their hope was that diesel would one day become a
viable alternative in the U.S., where for years many
states, such as California and New York, have banned the sale of noncommercial
diesel vehicles.
(Currently the Mercedes E320 Bluetec is the only diesel car that can be leased—but
not purchased—in these states as of
October 2007.) But with the price of diesel pushing $5 a gallon it remains
to be seen if, despite its superior gas mileage,
it will ever become a meaningful alternative in the U.S.
What is interesting, though,
is to see that the automobile industry has a surprising history of exploring
alternate technologies,
even if sometimes unrealistically. For example, in the 1950s Ford created
concepts around two very radical notions: the
nuclear-powered Ford Nucleon and the Ford Levicar Mach I, which operated using
maglev (magnetic levitating) technology.
Neither got beyond the concept stage, but it is intriguing to see that forward-thinking
engineers were already thinking about non-gasoline-powered cars.
Modern concept cars are less
fanciful by comparison, but they will probably have a much bigger practical
impact.
Alternative power sources like battery power and hydrogen are starting to
look practical in the near- to medium-term,
representing a significant change.
For years, those alternatives
have been seen as promising but always over the horizon, due to technological
drawbacks
and lack of consumer demand. Those hurdles are shrinking fast, especially
as consumer demand for alternative energy
has skyrocketed along with gas prices. Big advances have also been made in
battery technology, and the computer
software that regulates the newer power trains.
All this is leading to breakthroughs.
Just last month Honda announced the start of production in Japan for the first
hydrogen
fuel-cell vehicle in its lineup, the FCX Clarity. Honda has three dealerships
in Southern California set to service the cars.
The dealerships are near some of the nation's few hydrogen refueling facilities
that are accessible to the public.
The first five retail customers include actress Jamie Lee Curtis.
Meanwhile, concept cars are experimenting
with a wide range of alternative power sources, alone or in combination:
fuel cells, natural gas, conventional gasoline engines, clean-burning diesel
engines, and battery power.
Automakers are also tackling less glamorous but equally important barriers
to high fuel efficiency, including weight
and aerodynamics.
The Toyota 1/X concept car, for
instance, weighs only about one-third as much as the Toyota Prius, thanks
to the use
of strong but light carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic in the frame. Because
it's so light, it can employ a smaller conventional
engine, only 500cc, in combination with rechargeable lithium-ion batteries,
similar in concept to those used in a
laptop computer.
Not only has BMW built a working
hydrogen-powered car of its own, it has also more recently developed a concept
car called the GINA, which has a flexible fabric skin that can actually change
shape as it moves, to improve
aerodynamic performance.
"This is a very exciting time
to be in the automotive industry," says Tom Purves, the new CEO of Rolls-Royce
Motor Cars,
a division of BMW. "I think 100-some years ago, if we were sitting here and
one of us had a steam car, one of us had an
electric car, and one of us had a car that ran off internal explosions caused
by gasoline, I don't think any one of us could
have foreseen that it would be the gasoline engine that became the dominant
one."
A century later it would seem
that maybe the wrong technology won after all.
Hopefully during the next 100 years we can do better.