Hybrids and electric cars are
generating the buzz at Detroit's North American International Auto Show.
But thanks to new technology, the century-old internal-combustion engine appears
poised to make a significant
leap in fuel efficiency.
While car makers are showcasing
gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids and concept cars powered by fuel-cell
batteries,
they also are rolling out vehicles with advanced gasoline engines that rely
on a technology known as direct fuel injection.
Analysts say sales of vehicles
with such engines -- which deliver greater fuel economy and power than today's
similarly sized gas engines -- will far exceed those of hybrids and electrics
for years to come.
U.S. sales of hybrids will rise
to 578,000 by 2014 from 353,000 this year.
But the forecasting firm projects that sales of vehicles using direct-injection
gas engines will jump to 5.1 million
by 2014 from 585,000 this year.
Globally, hybrid, plug-in and battery-only vehicles will capture about 14% of the automotive market by 2020,
Leaping to a new technology is
really a big risk. It's much more cost effective and much less risk to do
something to an existing, proven technology.
All auto makers are under pressure
to boost fuel economy to meet stricter governmental standards.
But consumers are fickle when it comes to buying superefficient vehicles.
Sales of Toyota Motor Corp.'s
Prius, the best-known hybrid, zoomed last year when gas prices hit $4 a gallon
in the U.S.
But now, with gas costing less than half that, Toyota has seen Prius sales
slow dramatically and it recently mothballed
a U.S. factory slated to build the model.
One big hurdle hybrids face is
higher sticker prices, often thousands of dollars more than the same model
with a
traditional engine. It takes years for a customer to earn back this cost
through gas savings.
Early this decade, car makers
looked to the diesel engine for better mileage. But in the U.S., many turned
away from that
strategy for passenger cars as the cost of making diesel engines "clean"
increased by thousands of dollars per vehicle
after federal environmental regulations tightened. Also, diesel fuel costs
more than gasoline.
The internal-combustion engine
"will likely remain the backbone of mobility for the foreseeable future,"
said Daimler AG
Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche. He said his company has been able to improve
the efficiency of gas and diesel engines
by about 23% and "there is still further to go."
At the car show, BMW AG displayed
hybrid concepts of its 7-Series and X6 models that combine V8 engines with
a two-mode
hybrid to deliver a 20% improvement in fuel economy. But the German maker
also expects it could still get up to a 10%
improvement in fuel economy with tweaks to its existing lineup of gasoline
engines, said Klaus Draeger, a member of
BMW's executive board.
Leading the way are direct-injection
engines, which take highly pressurized fuel and thrust it squarely into the
combustion
chamber of each cylinder. By contrast, traditional engines first mix fuel
with incoming air before reaching the combustion
chamber, which is less efficient. Car maker say the advantages of direct
injection are lower emissions, better performance
and greater fuel efficiency.
Ford Motor Co. rolled out its
EcoBoost direct-injection technology, which promises greater performance while
offering
as much as a 20% increase in fuel economy over the same-size traditional
engine. It will first be available later this year
in the Ford Flex seven-passenger crossover wagon. By 2012, Ford expects to
produce 750,000 EcoBoost vehicles
annually world-wide.
The company argues the premium
for EcoBoost -- a price Ford has not disclosed -- is a better value than a
hybrid or
diesel. Assuming a gallon of gas is $3 or less, it would take 12 to 18 months
to see the cost savings of owning an
EcoBoost vehicle. The equivalent for a hybrid is five to seven years and
as long as a decade for diesel at current prices.
At General Motors Corp., 38 models will use direct-injection engines by next year, totaling about 10% of its global production.
GM and other makers are also
trying to develop a gas engine using a technology called homogenous-charge
compression-ignition, or HCCI. The technology is believed capable of providing
as much as a 30% boost in fuel economy
by burning gas faster at lower temperatures and reducing some of the energy
lost during the combustion process.
Major auto makers expect to sell a variety of vehicle technologies, but offer most models with gasoline engines.
Much of the electrification strategy
touted by auto makers counts on hefty incentives, including tax breaks to
make
buying a hybrid or battery-powered car easier on consumers' wallets. Without
such incentives, the costs of creating
a robust electric- and hybrid-car market will be prohibitively high.
Even many environmentalists say
that improving the gas engine is a good near-term solution. "There is no
silver bullet
-- we need a silver buckshot," said the Natural Resources Defense Council.
"We need cars that go further on less gas. We'll need to embrace all of the
technology."