Diesels scored
highest, surprising even the researchers. "We were kind of expecting that
hybrids would outperform diesels
when we went into the study. It's close, but the advanced diesel" provides
better performance and fuel economy for the price, he says.
Compared
to gasoline, a driver could spend as much as $1,600 more on fuel over a vehicle's
life burning E85, a mix of 85%
ethanol and 15% gasoline, Graham calculates, while a diesel could save as
much as $2,300.
Diesels are just creeping back into the USA as automakers introduce clean-burning models that meet new pollution rules.
The study,
which Graham plans to discuss today at a National Academy of Sciences roundtable
in Washington, undercuts
E85 at a time Detroit automakers are lobbying Congress for ethanol-supportive
legislation and fuel-economy credits for building
E85-compatible vehicles.
General Motors
and Ford Motor, both pro-ethanol, are among companies that support the Rand
school.
"They aren't crazy about the results," Graham says.
The study
also comes just as ethanol organizations are ramping up promotion of so-called
intermediate blends of ethanol fuel,
such as E20 — 20% ethanol and 80% gasoline — that they say could safely
be used in conventional vehicles.
Automakers currently limit regular vehicles to E10 blends, saying heavier
concentrations of ethanol could damage fuel systems.
"Do we jump
from E10 to E85? That's not a logical leap. That's why we're looking at these
intermediate blends,"
says Brian Jennings, executive vice president at the American Coalition
for Ethanol.
Graham's
team calculated the individual and societal costs and benefits of conventional
gasoline vehicles, gasoline-electric
hybrids, high-tech diesels and flex-fuel vehicles burning E85 full time.
Conclusion: Unless gasoline prices, averaging $3.10
a gallon now, rise above $4 and average $3.50 or more the next few years,
or ethanol prices drop a lot, diesel's the best
overall solution; E85's the worst.
Ethanol has
less than 70% of the energy of gasoline, so more ethanol in the blend means
fewer miles per gallon.
Adjusted for lower energy content, E85 averaged about $3.25, AAA reported
Thursday.
Drawbacks
outweigh the high marks ethanol gets for adding almost nothing to the cost
of a vehicle modified to burn E85
and for energy independence, Graham's team concluded. Ethanol is made from
grain, mainly corn.
Graham, dean
at school in Santa Monica, Calif., earlier worked at the U.S. Office of
Management and Budget
and founded the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis.
Rand is a non-profit corporation that researches public policy issues.